I had the privilege of appearing with Ken Benson from P1 Media and Andreas Sannemann from Benztown discussing radio’s challenges in a streaming age especially during the Doldrums Of The Music Cycle. I’ll be appearing again in June discussing how to integrate streaming and social data in doing rotations.
Here is the link to the video.
We’re seeing a heartbreaking trend at traditional and satellite radio (radio programmers managers, air talent and support staff), and in the music industry(promo staff and and losing great labels themselves) as both are going through a major cost cutting efforts. We’re losing thousands of talented industry veterans that have made their industries successful over many many decades.
As we rocket toward another Christmas and once again we see these cutbacks, its very important to remember what really made radio the great medium it became over the past 100 years. The reason radio became successful and the one major different between it and streaming serviced has always been the great radio personalities going back to Jack Benny and Bob Hope in the 30s.
Another important observation to note is that one month ago in the most consequential presidential election of our time, a personality made a huge difference in our country ..Joe Rogan Social media influencer Joe Rogan platforming Donald Trump for an interview 9 days before the election and helped sway millions of under 50 men to vote for him. Do I agree with his politics, no I don’t, but do I admire what he’s built as a stellar personality, I certainly do
It’s what’s possible when you have a personality entertaining the world with a quick wit humor and opinion as he brings us the biggest personalities from every walk of life. together in an hour or longer. He’s done 2200+ podcasts interviewing people representing sports, comedy, business, music, medicine, politics and more, Rogan has nearly 50 million people listening to him.
Rogan is doing audio’s newest longform version of traditional broadcasting, and his appeal is similar to the same big personalities who have always drawn us to radio all our lives…There were big personalities all over the country who reached out to us often when we were lonely and needed our “friend on the radio” to keep us company. It reminded me of myself at 13 year old, living in Stamford Connecticut listening to my idol Cousin Bruuuuucie. I remember listening on my little transistor radio away at YMCA summer camp as my friend Brucie, played me the latest from the Beatles and the Stones on 77 WABC. Cousin Brucie made that 13 year old kid fall in love with radio…and 59 years later I still love it!
But radio will fade away without the amazing personalities like Howard Stern, Scott Shannon and the late great Bill Tanner, so many great ones we are/were blessed to listen on the radio over the years….we need more of them, many more. We need them broadcasting on radio stations locally in every city in America like we had 30,40 50 back to the beginning of radio. We don’t need less of them as is happening or having them replaced by AI…that’s how radio survives
Top 40/CHR basically maintains its ranks for the year in Nielson’s format averages. With 6+ Persons its #7. In its target demo of persons 18-34 the format is down slightly in share and rank at #3. Top40/CHR is up slightly in share 25-54 Persons at #3. News/talk during our turbulent times is the dominant 6+ format. Adult Contemporary rules persons 25-54 and 18-34 (Thanks to Nielson’s Jon Miller!)
But there was a silver lining to the ratings when you eliminate the months where Christmas music stations are dominant CHR does better as friend Rich Appel reported in Inside Radio
“Since January, CHR’s up not only in persons 6+, but also 18-34, 18-49, and 25-54 – most notably the latter two, with 6% (6.4-6.8) and 8% (5.9-6.4) lifts respectably. For both 18-34 and 18-49, CHR has become a stronger runner-up to the first-place adult contemporary format.
Among the stations seeing significant 6+ share increases from the September to October survey are Broadway Media’s “Mix 105.1” KUDD Salt Lake City (up 41%), iHeartMedia’s “96.7 Kiss FM” KHFI Austin 3.8-5.3 (+39%), and iHeart’s WNCI Columbus, OH (+34%).”
Also radio is still #1 in total listening as Americans spend almost 20% of every day with audio; with over 4 hours of listening daily across both ad-supported and ad-free platforms like radio, podcasts, streaming music services and satellite radio. That’s 67% of their daily time with ad-supported audio to radio, 19% to podcasts, 11% to streaming audio services and 3% to satellite radio. Among 18-to-34 year-olds, radio’s share of time increased from 45% in the first quarter to 48% in Q2 while podcasts decreased slightly from 37% to 35%.
Nielson has made a big change to change the quarter hour credit rule from 5 minutes to 3 minutes. That means as Sean Ross calculated that you could see a “10% increase in listening levels” Also he was hopeful that the change might help formats based in current music, especially CHR and R&B/Hip-Hop, the latter of which never rebounded from the switch to PPM 15 years ago.” Also it might help CHR which took a blow when Nielson’s predecessor went to the Workplace diary in 1986 which gave a huge chunk of listening to AC and even Country where it used as background in the workplace
Its nice to see Nielson evolve to adapt measurements to more accurately capture the shrinking amount of time a radio listener spends on a station. We know listeners have had an ever shrinking attention span every year with so many messages bombarding them. Also their attention is drawn to so many different audio platforms besides radio. These days listeners are gone after only a few minutes of listening(or less). Whether its because they don’t like a song, hear a commercial or meaningless talk or simply wonder what they are missing on another platform. Bottom-line the tune-in tune out and time spent listening during one listening session of radio is a fraction of what it was a decade ago and is ever shrinking with more platforms to draw their attention to.
Sadly the biggest trend at labels is costcutting of radio is cWe’re seeing some major trends dominating the music industry in 2024, that offer some hopeful signs for the future of music, we’re still seeing gold consumption dwarfing current music. Also this past year(s), save Sabrina Carpenter, Chappel Roan there aren’t any new superstars for pop music that have emerged with multiple hits(yet)
In the RIAA Mid year report recorded music revenues grew by 4% to $8.7 billion in estimated retail value and have grown for nine straight years, dating back to 2016. Streaming subscriptions were up 3% to 99 million over the first half of 2024 – both record highs contributing nearly two-thirds of the added value in this period, Fans today discover and listen to music in more ways than ever, and this report captures revenue from the highest number of sources in our history. Vinyl shipments accelerated faster than any other major music format at 17% outselling CDs in units for the fourth consecutive year. At wholesale value, total revenues grew by 3% to a record high of $5.5 billion. Digital downloads declined in share for the 14th straight year, accounting for just 2% of U.S. recorded music revenues. We see Streaming services are curating more and more personalized and mood-specific playlists, driving “all the hits, all the genres” on platforms like Spotify, Apple Music, and satellite radio.
We are seeing more a handful of this that feature genre blending with artists across Pop, Country, R&B, and Rock made significant crossover impacts, appealing to broader audiences. Country-pop fusion gained momentum with artists like Luke Combs and Morgan Wallen. Even hip-hop and R&B artists like Shaboozey Post Malone and Beyonce began incorporating R&B and Country to garner hits. You even had a resurgence of Pop-Rock and Melodic Sounds: with alternative/indie artists like Teddy Swims, and Hozier combining pop rock, soul, and funk rock and , and Benson Boone’s folk rock hit Beautiful Things elements of pop rock and alternative rock
From an January Inside Radio article my friend Hubbard Radio Executive VP Programming and Audience Development Greg Strassell when observing music trends he envisions some positives “A crossover rock or urban artist, meshed with some crossover country and development of known pop artists, and CHR could come back,” he says, noting the format’s success with multiple hits in 2023 from Olivia Rodrigo, SZA, and of course Taylor Swift. “Hit music is a shared experience, finding those shared experiences has become tougher. But as we saw in country, it isn’t impossible with some fresh new artists to re-energize a format.”
At the same time Catalog/Library Consumption(18 months or older) of streaming music that was 73% in 1972 is NOW 82% of the US music market rather than new releases.. Its easier for music industry to go where they make the most money which is by providing catalog to eager consumers. It’s a less costly investment and produces more immediate profits for the music industry than focusing on finding and developing new artists and music…. even though the desire is still there for in new music. This certainly remains a disturbing trend for the future of music!
Streaming has contributed approximately 84% of total revenues for the fifth straight year with paid subscriptions outpacing other types in this category. We’re seeing purchases of physical music up 13% including Vinyl up 17% while at the same time Downloads decreased by 16%. Also streaming is hitting a ceiling. We’re seeing a 5-year trend showing the increases in the U.S. paid streaming subscribers slowing down where in 2024 it only grew by 2.6% indicating that we may be seeing streaming peaking in the US.
Genre Softening: We also see Pop music leaned heavily into slower, moodier tracks and introspective lyrics, echoing the Doldrums in previous decades where soften Example artists are like Billie Eilish, the aforementioned Benson Boone and of course Taylor Swift delivered emotive ballads and atmospheric pop that prioritized mood over energy.
Much of the music industry has been focused on churning out hits designed for quick success on streaming platforms, leading to highly polished, mass-produced songs that prioritize commercial appeal over artistic risk. You see this over-commercialized pop sounds with the slew of female pop artists scoring top 20 hits in the mode of the hugely successful Taylor Swift, Olivia Rodrigo, Sabrina Carpenter et.al Audiences always do want authenticity and can spot manufactured pop artists. You’ll see a fatigue with the formulaic and repetitive nature of this kind of music as we’ve seen for years during the Doldrums. This desire for change and innovation set the stage for innovation and a multi genre Rebirth period for CHR/Top 40. When the industry is its healthiest artists are allowed to be maintain their creative integrity and are able to create magic they feel, with new sounds in their music and even new genres. Artists and labels act like a million music laboratories creating great music and new genres. This happened during the Rebirth Periods of the Music Cycles in the mid 60s mid 70s, mid 80s even somewhat during the 90s,
Streaming revenue is now coming more from outside the U.S. for major companies like Spotify as In 2024, the global music industry’s revenue is expected to reach $28.6 billion.The fastest-growing markets are in Asia, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East, areas where major music companies have fewer resources. Emerging markets are forecast to make up 70% of new streaming music by 2030. Also Major labels are losing market share as independents offer new artists far better terms (in exchange for less help) but major labels still have a stranglehold on the biggest acts + the most valuable catalog. Major labels aren’t going anywhere but expect more consolidation. We saw that in 2024 as parent company UMG gobble up legendary label Interscope Records, which was responsible for so many great artists and wonderful creative music industry veterans gone.
AI will certainly have the largest effect on both the music industry and radio. We know the positives as AI are the algorithm that are used to make music recommendations as well as to create targeted music playlists on streaming platforms. AI can assist in music creation by lyrics or melodies, serving as inspiration for artists to refine and build upon. AI provides detailed insights into audience preferences and can even schedule music and create radio stations.
AI can copy existing artists basically stealing an artists sound. We’ve seen AI-generated personas like FN Meka and Hatsune Miku (though Miku uses human-made content with AI-powered vocals have released music. Some companies experiment with creating songs and identities for AI-generated musicians (synthetic pop stars)who can release music without human performers. AI has even generated music mimicking an artist’s voice or style.
Controversy involving an AI-generated song called “Heart on My Sleeve,” which used AI to replicate the vocal styles of The Weeknd and Drake without their consent. The song was created by a user known as “Ghostwriter” and went viral before being removed from streaming platforms like Spotify and Apple Music due to copyright claims by Universal Music Group. This incident highlights growing tensions in the music industry about the use of AI to replicate artists’ voices without authorization. Both The Weeknd and Drake have expressed frustration with such practices, and the situation raises legal and ethical questions about the use of AI in music production
Also radio has already been experimenting with AI in place of existing personalities for existing air shifts. RadioGPT developed by Futuri Media, uses AI to produce entire radio shows based on localized content and trending topics.
With the fact that it is cheaper, its speed in performing tasks and enables it to make rapid decision-making and analysis to temptation is to replace human beings with AI. While it can create through combining different aspects of what it knows its still doubtful that AI can create unique art and music masterpieces, at this point.
Bottomline when AI is used ethically as a powerful assistant to human beings and not as a massive replacement for them, it’s a powerful tool that will enhance. Nevertheless we know many in the music industry and radio will use AI to replace human beings.
With the stagnation of a lot of what we see in music and focus on catalog coming from traditional music industry sources that creates a “pent up demand” for fresh new artists creating innovative music and new artists and music creators are answering that call. Blockchain technology is transforming the way user-generated music content is created, shared, and monetized. Its decentralized and secure nature offers several advantages for artists and music creators: It offers a revolutionary approach to user music creation by decentralizing control, enhancing transparency, and opening new revenue models. It empowers artists to take charge of their careers and provides fans with unique opportunities to support and engage with their favorite creators. While challenges remain, the technology is poised to redefine the music industry
Until radio gets back to a smaller spot load and shorter stopsets like #1 rated 3 years running Now 102.3 in Edmonton Canada radio is not going to be able to attract a younger audience that primarily lives on Streaming platforms or Tik Tok
Radio’s biggest advantage is that it is known for and depended on for having great personalities. As Jacob’s media noted in their Tech Survey 2024 it’s one of the main reasons younger listeners still used radio. As my friend Hubbard Radio Executive VP Programming and Audience Development Greg Strassell said earlier this year…“Radio needs to take more shots on raw talent, experience not always necessary.” “As an industry, we need to increase our efforts to find and develop new personalities who can connect to our audience,” he says, “and equally as important, we need to retain current talent who are doing it now by treating them well, “The more talk there is of AI, the more important it becomes that we have talent [that is] real, meaningful, reflective and raw – flaws and all.” One way to keep these great personalities on radio was brought up at Joel Denver’s Radio Rendezvous. I was talking to I was talking to legendary morning man Fred(Christopher Fredrichs) at KISS Radio WKSC Chicago, and he was telling me how important iHeartMedia EVP of Programming Thea Mitchem’s idea of syndication for the show was in helping to build salaries for his morning show team to keep them in place an idea …What a brilliant way to keep great talent on radio. Syndication podcasts paid social media events and appearances. Without keeping the great talent radio has and finding the new generation of great talent, radio will cease to exist.
Earlier this year Sean Ross Edison Research’s Vice President of Music and Programming and longtime journalist covering the music and radio industry covering the wrote an industry missive about the importance of ‘reinforcing radio listening’ maybe it is time for radio to remind people them of the radio station they are listening to. Also Marketing radio, providing choice, and prompting listeners to report that the radio in their parents’ car was something they enjoyed, not merely endured, will make a difference with young listeners, too.”
In an excellent January 2024 Inside radio article industry experts addressed radio’s challenges. As Saga Communications Senior VP Content Pat Paxton stated he so perfectly stated “we need to proudly wear the radio badge.’ In the same article Coleman Insights Executive VP and Senior Consultant John Boyne said For stations to be relevant, they need to be visible. “Declining brand consumption goes hand in hand with declining brand awareness,” “Therefore, one of the industry’s biggest needs is for our brands to be forefront in the minds of the target audience. To do so amidst intense multimedia competition and in a challenging financial environment may require some bold, creative thinking.” Hubbard Radio Executive VP Programming and Audience Development Greg Strassell said we can be “bolstering their stations’ audio product with short- and long-form video content on YouTube, TikTok, Instagram or Twitch “As more consumers are presented with more choices in a connected car, the strong brands will make the cut and the weak will fall by the wayside,” Coleman’s Boyne says. To remain in the former group, Strassell says, “the audience must want to know about and seek your product. The content must be right, [and] the brand promise must be designed around how you are solving a problem or creating a benefit for them to listen.” “As more consumers are presented with more choices in a connected car, the strong brands will make the cut and the weak will fall by the wayside,” Coleman’s Boyne says. “As more consumers are presented with more choices in a connected car, the strong brands will make the cut and the weak will fall by the wayside,”
Jacobs Media’s Tech Survey demonstrates the importance of the Local Edge and intense connection with your listeners Radio still has the local edge. The advantage of your local connection has been preached for years. The often-forgotten key to success for radio. is being the radio station that dominates in connecting with its listeners locally. Great radio stations understand the need to create a lasting listener bond with constant personality interaction through social media, texting as well as direct connection with listeners continuously
Let’s take a look at music and we examine where we stand with the Zapoleon Music Cycle at the end of 2024. I’ve said so many times history repeats(as have many others) History repeats in nearly everything in our lives but most people aren’t old enough or have read enough history to understand or witness it. We saw a deadly pandemic repeat 90 years later. Authoritarianism is on the rise here and around the world like it was in the 1930s But amidst the chaos we see everywhere, there are always positive changes that come with it(eventually) so there is always hope, and opportunity, with those changes for better things ahead, more on that later That history repeats is the basis of the Zapoleon Music Cycle where we’ve seen for over 60 years during the rock and roll era, a repeating pattern for music and its genres. The Music Cycle follows the same pattern Rebirth(the core genres of music are their most pop flavored), Extremes(R&B and rock move to become more edgy) Doldrums a major softening and stagnation of music which is reaction by the masses to the edgy music during the extremes.
Yes since the devastation of Covid 19 that began it in 2020, we’re still in the longest doldrums ever now as in 2024 we’re in year 5. Soon after 2024 began the wonderfully distinct Miley Cyrus won the Record Of The Year from the Grammys with “Flowers” in February. Now Flowers has broken all Billboard Chart Records totaled an unprecedented 100 weeks atop all the Billboard radio charts that it has led which include the Adult Contemporary, the all-format Radio Songs chart, Adult Pop Airplay, Pop Airplay and on and on the Dance/Mix Show Airplay. It totaled a staggering 106 weeks atop all Billboard airplay charts. But back in June there appeared some hope for a return of the music industry back to a healthy music balance It even appeared it might be possible that there were signs of a Rebirth and a brand new Music Cycle starting again in 2024. Music’s old gatekeeper Top 40 radio(at least musically) exhibited more diversity with a different genre bending sound by acts like Post Malone and Shaboozey, combining HipHop and Country, and the rest of the Top 10 was filled with Rock pop and R&B/Hip-Hop hits on that June 2024 chart. Legendary air talent and my former music director at KZZP/Phoenix was thrilled with this diversity of music on the Hot 100 and challenged my friend Sean Ross to fight him on this saying that week’s Top 10 was the best in ages.
Gene’s observation on this Top 10 from Billboard’s Hot 100 showcases different artists representing more genre variety and one not dominated by the tracks of a big artist release by a superstar like Taylor Swift or Kendrick Lamar in our Streaming dominated music world. (as we just saw in December where 9 out of the top 10 streaming songs were from Kendrick’s new album)
But the pattern didn’t last because Top40/CHR is still in the same rut we’ve been since the Doldrums started in 2020… Despite the fact Shaboozy No. 1 on the Hot 100 for 19 weeks, just tied a record held by Lil Nas X first big R&B Country genre mix hit “Old Town Road,” Also you saw Post Malone certified platinum F Trillion Country genre release featuring every Country superstar imaginable with the hit single I Had Some Help f. Morgan Wallen. But outside Miley Cyrus and Shaboozey’s record breaking hits, the multiple hits from Sabrina Carpenter, the refreshing album of hits by Chappel Roan as well as Post Malone’s country crossover success there weren’t a ton of bright spots in music this year. Overall we’re still seeing a genre sameness to the chart where often one artist dominating the chart or currently a glut of similar sounding female Pop Artists producing mostly midtempo pop hits occupying most of the Chart and Top 40/CHR radio’s music. Here is the real-time chart of the most played songs from Mediabase this week where you see Sabrina Carpenters with 2 hits in the Top 10 and 2 more in the Top 20. Also over 1/3 of the list are recurrents that have been around almost since the beginning of the year…stagnation.
Nielson Streaming Chart from the November doesn’t have that much of a different look with nearly half of this chart filled up by female Pop stars
Speaking of Female Pop stars, 2023’s biggest hit Miley Cyrus Flowers has now been on the Billboard Charts for 108 weeks breaking all records. Once again that illustrates the lack of true hits that we hoped would increase in 2024. In 2024 at radio we a little better than 2023’s record low of consensus hits last year but at 19 were still not close back to the wealth of consensus hits we had in the 10s and before that.
HipHop and R&B is the #1 genre and is up a little from last year at 31% Country is #2 Genre is remains also basically the same as last year at 29% This time a lot of the Country that crossed over are from Pop/R&B + Country genre blending Pop songs that come from Top 40 mainstays like Post Malone as well as newcomers like Shaboozey.70Pop which is always key indicator of Top 40 music health is #3 and is slightly up from last year at 23% on music percentages on the Billboard Charts. Dance a key component of Pop is up to 15% from the past 5 years on Hot 100 Year End Chart the highest its been for Billboard since 2011.
Pop is down from its 5 year 58% average to 46% on the Top 40 Year End airplay Chart tying the lowest its been since 2010 at Mediabase. However that’s actually good news due to the fact that more closely reflects the x % on Billboard Hot 100 Popularity Chart. Dance remains at a high percentage at 24% which means that more than half of the Pop genre was occupied by Dance songs. Hip Hop and R&B is back down to 24% similar to what it was the last 5 years after a Mediabase Top 40 airplay high of 35% last year Country is up to a record 11% of the Top 40 airplay chart while far below the percentage of Country hits on the Hot 100 Year End survey its at least double what it was in the past decade. AC/Pop Rock+ Rock +Country The combined genre combination an indication of genre diversity is at 30% which was almost double the number it was last year hitting 30% and bigger than HH and R&B for the first time since 2013. You are beginning to see a more diverse genre mix with acts like Alternative Indie acts Hozier having #1 songs with genre songs and Pop artists like Benson Boone are scoring #1 songs from the pop rock folk rock genre. % of t being
A somewhat positive sign is that Mediabase’s Top 40 Airplay duplication of the Billboard Year End 100 is back up to 51% playing more of the most popular hits. However its important to note that Year End Top 40 and Billboard’s Popularity Chart duplication used to be 80% in the early 10s.
As bleak as some of the numbers look for Pop overall that is heavily focused on Dance like the prior Doldrums of the 70s and 60s now for music, just remember that as we’ve seen in World and American History throughout the ages, everything runs in patterns and repeats. When the world is in the Chaos and still in the Doldrums phase after 5 years as is music right now, oftentimes that means that beginning of a new era is right around the corner. Throughout history, innovation and creativity happens during this Chaos, when the world, the music industry and people themselves are desperate.
Listeners are looking out for songs that strike them emotionally many possible hits and a song that builds that consensus with many people is a Hit! “…but with the current state of Top 40/CHR radio if “they ain’t on the charts they won’t get support”. I was told by a programmer that Nielson shows that people tune out the country stuff plus people complain about those songs. But to me that’s an indication that Top40/CHR that what they don’t realize is Top 40/CHR has been turned into a niche format…as I used to tell programmer who wouldn’t expand into other genres that would fit. If you focus on a 3 share you just might get it
Top 40 shouldn’t be a niche format where it over focuses on just playing pop hits that all sound very much alike, that’s one of many problems the format has right now. Top 40 when its been the most successful its played All The Hits I was talking about the state of Top 40 radio with radio & music legend former associate publisher and director of charts for Billboard Magazine Michael Ellis
He was wondering about Kendrick Lamar “Not Like Us,” which was a big testing song in callout which brought a different sound to the format which took forever to become a power and once it was quickly dropped off the chart. Michael used that as just another indication of the problems Top40/CHR faces as we desperately need to “get back to playing a diversity of current popular music (genres) in the U.S. which is not being reflected in Top 40 playlists right now. Top 40 is being overly dominated by a dozen current and recurrent mid-tempo, sound-alike pop songs from Sabrina Carpenter, Tate McRae, Addison Rae, Gracie Adams, etc” These songs/artists also are a problem because they are low energy mid-tempo soundalike female vocals.” I know we both agree that as a segment of a playlists pop music variety they are fine but if that sound dominates
a chart…it’s a problem,
Radio needs to stop focusing on the Top 40/CHR airplay charts alone and be looking for potential hits no matter where they come from…whether it’s the wealth of great music at Country radio which just like many Hip-Hop songs don’t get huge fit score at Top 40 But I say it’s chicken or egg.. if you don’t play these genres enough they can’t be hits and will have no expectation at Top 40/CHR and for that reason poor responses in callout…but when Country hits like Fast Car Luke Combs and Last Night by Morgan Wallen became best testing Top 40 hits in the south southwest it illustrates that in markets where listeners share a lot of country and top 40 listeners these songs get played and are expected on Top 40 and become Top 40 hits So I say Look for songs to add wherever you can find them not just the charts.. streaming TikTok, International hits, album cuts(and yes Bring backs or remakes like the Guetta Alphaville, the original Forever Young is #1 on TikTok) I talked about it here remembering how I broke an import from England at KRQQ Tucson…the Straycats-Rock This Town https://www.facebook.com/share/p/xBKtkL8mjQtnrtds/?mibextid=oFDknk
Arbitron began the process of turning radio into a background utility in 1986 because of inclusion of the workplace in their radio listening methodology. Now Nielson who inherited what Arbitron began has music listeners divided into passive(radio) and active listeners are mostly on streaming. So Edison’s Larry Rosen asked me recently for a client my thoughts on callout research because compared to the streaming charts its takes a hell of a long time for songs to come through and show that they are hits. Yes callout always takes a long time but I saw that still happening a decade ago with some Bruno Mars hits. But now it takes even longer for a song to become a hit or even familiar with a song Vs what we see on the streaming charts The streaming music audience who are already familiar with and even loves that song catch on weeks earlier. That type of listener used to live on radio, listened for long periods of time and drove radio ratings but they were no match for the 40 hours of listening a week that a workplace listener would listen. As the passive workplace listeners infected music research and callout ceased to measure the passionate music fan and huge commercial spotloads alienated music fans the latter group first departed for their own music collections then Napster and now finally streaming music platforms & apps like TikTok
While a hit generally emerges within 8 weeks in callout research sometimes it takes longer Here’s an extreme example of how long it takes for a Streaming hit to become a callout hit case in point on is Die With A Smile by Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars finally dropping from #1 in streaming after weeks at that top slot. At the same time its just beginning to test in callout research as a potential power for alot of stations. However its still not testing with a majority of them after 17 weeks of airplay so its not a consensus hit(see Consensus hits above)
With the confusion over what is a hit compared to streaming charts which still is the #1 factor on the Billboard Charts and Top 40 programmers wondering what to use to do their rotations and how long they hold on to new songs in rotations Then labels are generally giving up on songs that have peaked in streaming(their #1 source of revenue) so that lack of promotion by labels also brings songs down on the billboard and media base charts, you have a big a problem for new music and artists because a lot of hits are getting lost because of that
So I’m still a big believer in callout research as a primary determiner of the most popular songs for power rotation Vs. Streaming Why? First because its an accurate random sample of a radio station’s fans and listeners. Once again, with Nielson being the yardstick for rating radio stations and determiner of station revenue, you have to target your radio listeners especially the ones who are heavy users of the medium, if you want to get big ratings. Look there is no question that Streaming is the most popular way to consume music. But because we don’t know who the fans are by race age or sex I think it’s dangerous to use streaming as a primary way of creating powers which needs to be the foundation songs(spokes) that hold weaker songs together in your hour of music. Yes, I’ll agree that a streaming song that stays on top of the Streaming charts for weeks like the previous example Lady Gaga and Billy Joel should be a power-testing song in callout eventually(or is one already for many)
Use your ears to pick them not the charts play the crap out of them and create clocks that spin Bs and News faster to make them more familiar and become the next powers…yes that may take 6 even 10 weeks. But the hits are the hits are the hits whether we like it or not(using ALL your tools. Callout , Streaming Shazam. Just play less of them per hour, and if necessary add another Post power per hour. The radio audience that Nielson measures is a more conservative audience than the music loving streaming and TikTok audience. And that needs to change. And we should have changed that 30 years ago beginning with Arbitron’s horrible workplace diary in 1986 which boosted workplace formats AC and Country in the South and hurt active music stations, and created a pent up demand for new music platforms like Napster then Streaming then TikTok.
Also over the years PLEASE make I’ve literally found so many songs potential hit songs that had the wrong hook and not always the obvious one. The famous one for me was one that Andrea Ganis legendary former head of promotion for Atlantic Records found for Icona Pop’s “I Love it” not using the overly repetitive hook but a compelling 12 seconds from the chorus and when that correct hook was put in the song rocketed to power in callout. Which brings, up the other problem with callout which is using too short a hook, which especially when a song is new, is not nearly enough time to identify an unfamiliar song. . With so few true consensus hits these days we can’t afford to lose a single one because of a bad hook
For 5 out of 6 decades, the Rebirth and a new Music Cycle has come in the middle of the decade.
When you examine each Rebirth period you can see this by looking at the many of the hits by these artists at that point in time. You saw Elvis 1956 Beatles Rolling Stones 1964, Eagles, Elton, Fleetwood Mac Stevie Wonder 1975, Michael Jackson Madonna The Police 1983-1984, Rihanna, Justin Timberlake, Beyonce, Fall Out Boy 2005-2006, Taylor Swift, Justin Bieber, The Weeknd, Ed Sheeran Twenty One Pilots 2015-2016. The 90s Rebirth occurred later when Top 40 recovered after two highly respected consultants issued a ridiculous “Top 40 is Dead” statement in two major newspapers which chilled the format ‘til 1997.
In the middle of this decade, we’re starting to see an upcycle for Top 40 music and an up-trend for CHR radio ratings with a majority of CHRs in the Top 100 markets up in June/Spring books with a handful of CHRs #1
My former music director at KZZP Gene Baxter (also Kevin and Bean) made the observation this is the best Billboard Top 10 in ages to Sean Ross @RossOnRadio
Gene’s observation on Billboard’s Hot 100 showcases a Top 10 with different artists representing more genre variety and one not dominated by the tracks of a big artist release by a superstar like Taylor Swift or Kendrick Lamar in our Streaming dominated music world.
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Here’s the Top 10
Sean followed up and asked me “When can you declare an up cycle?” I replied, “You have to see consistently good weeks of 7-10 hits in the Top 10 for months on end and we’re starting to see that.
Looking at the Billboard Charts vs Mediabase Top 40 airplay charts.
Always key indicator of Top 40 music health, the restoring of Pop music percentages on the Billboard Charts.
You when you see a lot of Dance music on the Hot 100, it’s a good sign for Pop music and Top 40 and Dance music at 24% is the highest level since 2013 over a decade ago.
You see HipHop the #1 genre on the Billboard Hot 100 and R&B back to its dominant 2020 & 2021 levels.
You see it become a stronger #2 genre on the Top 40 airplay charts.
You see Country is back down to its 2020 & 2021 levels from its all-time high percentages during 2022 & 2023 on the Billboard Hot 100. Top 40 embracing it a little more I had a friend at radio tell me the current Top 40 audience doesn’t want or expect these other genres, they only want pop and R&B. The good news is like EDM music in the early 10s, as established Top 40 artists from Pop (or R&B) embrace a genre that genre is more likely to get top 40 airplay. This time around the most recent Top 40 airplay is for Country Pop songs that come from Top 40 mainstays Beyonce and Post Malone as well as newcomers like Shaboozey.70% of t being
Also, Top 40 Airplay duplication of the Billboard Year End 100 is back to 52% again remembering that duplication used to be 80% in the early 10s.
What’s Hot? A Variety of Genre and Female Pop
On the Top 40 airplay charts you are beginning to see a more diverse genre mix with acts like Alternative Indie acts Hozier having #1 songs with genre songs and Pop artists like Benson Boone are scoring #1 songs from the pop rock folk rock genre. Also you also have more Pop female artists hot on record breaking #1 music artist Taylor Swift heels, especially Sabrina Carpenter scoring her first top 5 hits in 2024 and her latest Please Please Please hitting #1.
Gold consumption-Remakes and Sampling is down in 2024
Another good sign for current music in 2024 is that while we’re at point in music consumption where 80% of what is being consumed on Spotify is gold & older than 2 years you aren’t seeing even close to that amount of gold remakes or songs sampling older music as much of a force on the charts on Spotify, Shazam, Tik Tok or radio.
Finally, we’re seeing for the first time since Covid chilled pop culture in 2020 the amount of as Consensus hits(powers) for the year will grow for the year as projecting 2024 we’ll have 22 vs 17 last year
With a majority of CHR’s up in ratings for the June/Spring Book in the Top 100 markets, you are also seeing some new CHRs with WNTQ Syracuse WFLY Albany joining perennial CHR #1s KJYO Oklahoma City and WKRZ Wilkes Barre. Yes, it’s way too early to declare that the CHR format is in an up cycle but it’s still a positive sign.
Innovation and Risk Taking
We’ve been in a period of stagnation and Music Historian Ted Gioia recently stated a problem for our content creators ‘When movies, television and the music industry embrace a formula until it’s way beyond it’s “sell by date” Then it reverses, and you see risk taking again.
Invest in Artists, their long-term development and engagement with fans
You won’t get the next Taylor Swift without creative freedom and support. It took Taylor almost 2 decades to become the artist she is today. artists need artist development i.e. financial support & instruction from mentors/producers to grow. Historian Ted Gioia
A Vastly Reduced Commercial Load
Also, at some point radio will address the “elephant in the room” commercial load… “Cut the spot load and raise the rates. This should have been done long ago. But beginning with the 1996 Telecom Bill, which created a buying boom for radio stations, where stations became worth 10 times what they had been worth. The major companies’ debt load that followed and the pressures of being publicly owned companies made running a low commercial load virtually impossible. Nevertheless, radio has to do something, when its lead music competitor: streaming services and apps have little or no commercials. That’s one of the biggest factors that’s keeping a younger audience from spending more time with our medium. And it’s being done in other countries!
What happens when you address commercial loads intelligently, Now 102.3 in Edmonton Canada is the perfect example They only run six minutes an hour versus 12 minutes for most of the competitors, but they charge more to meet budget demands. Also, Now 102.3 goes overboard helping their clients with remotes and ideas to drive customers to their clients to increase their ROI value. With their personality approach and constant connection with listeners Now has been #1 for the past 3 years.
I’d consider bringing back the 2-minute promise that the End in Seattle began a decade ago and KROQ in Los Angeles tried that strategy as well. You could run 3 stopsets of 2 minutes apiece with the promise you’ll be back to music after that…. stick to it and never break your promise!
My friend Dave Williams put it beautifully recently saying “Sell your clients an exclusive opportunity for a media partnership with their clients. Offer them more personal attention, and hands-on assistance …. Explain to your clients that by paying more they are getting an exclusive opportunity to be center stage rather than being shoved to the back of a very crowded bus.”
Personalities Is Still One Of Radio’s Biggest Advantages
Radio’s biggest advantage is that it is known for and depended on for having great personalities. As Jacob’s media noted in their Tech Survey 2024 it’s one of the main reasons younger listeners still used radio
but the competition is catching up! Sirius Satellite radio continues to feature great personalities on their channels and now is bringing in channels hosted by music artists. You also have podcasts and on streaming sites now with strong personalities are becoming more popular. But radio still leads.
As my friend and another great former KZZP Music Director and Professor at Newhouse School Of Public Communications at Syracuse University Michelle Santosuosso recently told her class
Why are all these companies trying so hard to re-create the “radio experience?”
What is the RADIO EXPERIENCE
• A Deejay. The host (who lives in your town) talking about what’s happening locally— a club night, a concert, a sports game, a street festival, and is likely giving away tickets to all of it or sharing how to access yourself.
• A Destination. Hear not just music, but traffic, weather, news, gossip, comedy, drama, interviews, public service announcements, contests & prizes, and other people, listeners who call in….
• A Companion. Not an algo. Not an AI. Humans that share specific passions with their audience whether that’s about a musical format or about a sports team.
Tech Survey Also shows you the importance of the Local Edge and intense connection with your listeners
Radio still has the local edge. The advantage of your local connection has been preached for years. The often-forgotten key to success for radio. is being the radio station that dominates in connecting with its listeners locally. Edmonton’s Now 102.3, is doing this with its heavy personality approach and delivering local content. They create a lasting listener bond with constant personality interaction through social media and texting with listeners continuously on their website.
Veteran radio consultant Guy Zapoleon analyzes the top 40 music landscape in 2023 and offers suggestions on how to revitalize the format.
So much around us is changing and changing fast. The world is at war, we live in a country divided, AI is a benefit and a threat to music and talent. Current music is struggling – 75% of music consumed is older than two years. For the first time ever, country tied for the most dominant music genre. There is no one music platform where everyone goes to listen and that creates a lack of consensus on hit music that has once again reduced the amount of hits in 2023.
With the success of TikTok, the creation of music is moving from the record labels into the hands of your average music consumer. Innovation is a sign of the next Rebirth of the Music Cycle but how long will the Doldrums last?
It’s still the worst Doldrums of all time as we ended 2023 with an all-time low of 17 consensus songs.
Year
2020
2021
2022
2023
Consensus Hits
28
27
23
15
*Consensus hits reflects songs that were powered by 50% of Top 40s or more
TOP 40 AIRPLAY CHARTS
AC/POP ROCK
ROCK
COUNTRY
Latin
AC/RCK/CTRY/Other
POP
HIPHOP/R&B
DANCE
BILLBOARD CHARTS
AC/POP ROCK
ROCK
COUNTRY
Latin
AC/RCK/CTRY/Other
POP
HIPHOP/R&B
DANCE
BILLBOARD VS AIRPLAY TITLE DUPLICATION
2023
8%
4%
5%
0%
17%
60%
35%
24%
2023
9%
0%
30%
9%
46%
22%
30%
8%
2023
44%
2022
13%
4%
1%
1%
19%
55%
26%
24%
2022
9%
2%
26%
11%
48%
28%
24%
13%
2022
44%
2021
6%
6%
3%
1%
16%
57%
26%
11%
2021
5%
4%
17%
4%
30%
29%
40%
10%
2023
55%
2021
4%
4%
3%
0%
26%
60%
25%
16%
2021
4%
4%
18%
0%
26%
29%
45%
7%
2023
54%
Charts above reflect the percentages of the 2023 Year-End Top 100s from Top 40 airplay (Mediabase) and Popularity (Billboard charts) coded by the major genre groups. Duplication indicates the percentage of titles on both charts.
Taylor Swift, Time Magazine’s Person Of the Year, dominated the pop charts with ten Billboard Top 10 hits in 2023. Country was tied for the No. 1 genre and in 2023 it broke its all-time record with 30% of the Year-End Top 100. Hit Songs Deconstructed also found that 21% of the Top 10 songs this year were country, the highest top 10 share for country in more than a decade. Morgan Wallen’s “Last Night” was No. 1 for 16 weeks on the chart. Never in music history have three country songs occupied the Top 3 on Billboard’s Hot 100. As Integr8’s Matt Bailey noted, “This burst of interest in country at a time when CHR is struggling isn’t unique. Guy Zapoleon’s 10-year music cycle shows that country typically does well when CHR is in the depth of its Doldrums phase.”
Two additional takeaways from this analysis of Billboard’s Year-End Popularity Chart: R&B ties with country at No. 1 with 30% and pop was at a near record low of 22%. And the Mediabase Top 40 year-end Top 100 shows Top 40 playing only 44% of the most popular songs on Billboard’s Year-End Chart. Why? because Top 40 only played pop-alternative, AC and country hits enough to garner 5-10% on the Top 40 Year-End chart. Top 40 needs to review how it played a wider genre variety during the hip-hop-dominated, pop-starved 90s (where pop equaled 19%), and early 00s (pop 16%). As Steve Rivers and John Ivey would say, “Play The F***ing Hits.”
During the worst Doldrums cycle ever for top 40/CHR, the format is suffering from its lowest ratings ever. A decade ago it was averaging second place 6+ in Nielsen. Now the format is 7th. News/talk and AC are the most dominant 6+ formats while AC and country rule persons 25-54. In its target demo of persons 18-34, top 40 has dropped while remaining stable at Top 3 persons 25-54.
Musically we need to review how we test music to ensure our research target is old enough to represent existing listeners. Each week, look at the most spun currents and recurrents together and test that top 30 and then play the hits. Consider post powers for power currents. For new music validation, look at Power Indicator Scores.
My first program director, Dave Williams, said what made Top 40 successful for 50 years was that genre surprise you had where you could hear anything – adult appeal ballad, a hard rocker, street sounding R&B, or pure pop. Listeners could hear all the hits, not just a narrow genre mix of pop and R&B/pop hip-hop.
Radio also needs to address its commercial load problem which is the top reason given for paying for a streaming music subscription.
In order to create content that can bring a younger audience back to radio, Jon Coleman of Coleman Insights says we need to be “live and local.”
Radio desperately needs to support and challenge our current crop of great personalities and find radio’s next generation of talent. Look at Edmonton’s amazing “102.3 Now! Radio” CKNO, where local content creates a lasting listener bond with constant personality interaction through socials and texting.
We need to mimic successful streaming platforms where ALL RADIO STATIONS are on one platform. Make it simple for listeners to find radio on their mobile phone.
And as Larry Rosin of Edison Research stated, one of the biggest problems for radio is “the near-total blackout of external marketing.” Let’s make these critically important changes, then market the medium of radio so we can remain an important player in the fast changing media landscape.
Guy Zapoleon is an award winning nearly 50-year programmer of winning radio stations around the world. He is a nine-times Billboard Consultant Of the Year in Top 40 and AC and currently President of Zapoleon Consulting. Visit GuyZapoleon.com for his articles and a radio history in pictures.
My friend Dave Williams the legendary personality, program director and podcaster asked me to have a conversation with him about radio. It turned out to be a really great review of radio, music and current media; what it was like then compared to where we are today and how we got here.
Dave Williams was my first boss in radio when in 1973 he was Program Director of KRTH and I was the 21 year old local kid from Encino CA assigned to help redo the music library based on my knowledge of Los Angles hit music and radio.
Also posted below in comments was an additional part of the interview with our mutual boss then Paul Drew National PD of RKO with some funny moments we share
Dave and I discussed PAUL DREW!
Yes, we’re still deep into the worst doldrums in music and radio history, and it’s a rough start for 2023. We’ve seen the amount of new songs being played on Top 40 diminishing this year, and this week there were only two debuts on Mediabase’s Top 40 chart
Another indicator of the health of Top 40 is the tracking of the consensus Power Rotation songs that reach power at a majority of Top 40 radio stations. We’ve seen the number of these consensus powers dropping to historic lows at the format since 2020.
So far in 2023, you only have six songs that have become consensus powers, and that puts Top 40 on track to have 15 consensus powers by the end of 2023. That would be almost 50% less than 2022 and, yet again, another record low. Also, five of these six songs are from before 2023, four are from 2022, and one of those powers is a 2011 bring-back, “Sure Thing” by Miguel. This drought on consensus hits, with programmers holding on to their powers longer, creates a “bear market” for new music, with Top 40 programmers taking fewer risks on new artists.
Year
2020
2021
2022
2023
Consensus Hits
28
27
23
15
It just tells you where we are in the Music Cycle, and hopefully this is the Doldrums’ lowest ebb with music and Top 40 ratings, which were an all-time low in 2022 at 4.9.
Passionate music fans of all ages are also more devoted now to streaming than radio.
Labels are more focused on finding new ways to reap more revenue from catalog streams
and sales than they are in breaking new music and new artists.
Consider this: back in 2004, catalog accounted for 35% of sales. In 2014, catalog was 50% of sales, and now in 2023, catalog is close to 75% of their revenue from streaming and sales. That comes at the same time as labels are complaining that it is harder than ever to have a song crack Spotify’s top 200, which is filled with established artists.
TikTok, one of the lead sources for music discovery, is facing being banned in many states with concerns over user privacy and national security due to its links to China. Plus, there are now concerns over AI being used to clone voices, and a recent incident where a song is pulled off steaming services for cloning Drake and the Weeknd.
Will that be a cost-saving strategy for the music industry in the future that reduces dependence on the artists themselves? Crazy times! So, it’s a chaotic time in music, and it is certainly getting tougher to break hits in 2023 as well as finding new hits for radio.
Radio will continue to play it safe to satisfy the more conservative and, indeed, older audience that remains listening mostly to radio. In contrast, as almost always happens during the Doldrums, you see a greater focus on Gold music, with formats featuring more Gold doing better in the ratings than current music-based formats. You often see older classic tracks becoming hits again, or coming back as remakes. Sometimes songs never given their due originally — like Kate Bush’s “Running Up That Hill” and Miguel’s 2011 semi-hit “Sure Thing” — coming back as a huge hits. You have another future power on the way with Luke Combs’ “Fast Car,” a remake of Tracy Chapman’s 1988 hit.
Also, superstar artists are taking up more playlist real estate, as you frequently see 15-20 tracks from a superstar artist’s new album occupying the Top 50 of Spotify’s 200 Weekly Top Songs playlist. That’s pushing many songs, often by new artists, out of the Top 50. Besides the struggle to break through at streaming, you also have Top 40 stations going deeper into a new album from major artists and doubling up on two or more songs from that album in current rotation, again taking away more slots from a newer artist.
What are the solutions for music and for radio musically? It’s as simple as my friends Steve Rivers and John Ivey and I would always say, “Play The F***ing Hits.” But I add an addendum: Play ALL the hits no matter where they come from.
You’ve seen my complaint about Top 40 radio getting away from reflecting the national hits on the Billboard chart. Billboard’s Hot 100 is heavily influenced by streaming, and certainly the best gauge of the overall most popular music in the U.S. Yes, a portion of those songs will be streaming hits that don’t convert to Top 40 radio, but it’s a real problem when the duplication of the 100 most played year end hits at Top 40 on radio as seen on Mediabase is less than 50% on the Billboard Year End Hot 100 hits. Top 40 radio needs to get deeper into the songs that populate the Billboard Year End Hot 100.
Here’s a mid-year analysis of Mediabase’s most-played songs so far this year that are most likely to make the Mediabase Year End Top 100 for Top 40.
While during the Doldrums you often do see Pop at around 50% or less, which is expected, it’s still probably a bigger proportion that there isn’t enough genre variety from Country, Pop/Alternative, AC or, especially, Latin hits considering their huge streaming numbers. Also, the duplication between Billboard and Top 40 airplay continues to be below 50%, when in 2016 the duplication was 50%.
The good news is we are beginning to see Top 40 radio picking up on hits from Country, and of course that makes sense when you see that Country has tied with Pop at 26% for the top genre gaining the most top 10s in Billboard during the first quarter of 2023,
according to Hit Songs Deconstructed. Of course, the first Country hits Top 40 is picking up are the enormously popular Morgan Wallen, who has 20% of hits on the Billboard Mid Year Charts, as well as Luke Combs’ new hit as well. The sad thing is there has been great Country music that should have crossed over to Top 40 for the last 20 years that just got ignored. Good to see that’s beginning to change.
But I still agree with Integr8’s Matt Bailey when he stated that we won’t see things improve for music and radio until around 2026, “when today’s high school seniors (reach “adulthood”) when they turn 21.
Also, the next Rebirth phase won’t happen as long as the consumption of music is spread out among so many digital music platforms and apps (and radio), with no one dominant place for a vast majority of people to become familiar with the new music and new artists and reach consensus on the same songs to become hits. That also will take at least a few more years for that to shake out.
The future of radio’s survival, its 13-34 listener, spends 70% of their time on streaming services vs. 30% on radio. At the same time, the amount of people that own a radio at home is shrinking, as it’s now eight out of 10 households. The numbers show 70% or less for Millennials and Gen Z, and forget about Gen Alpha, as that is much less.
Even in radio’s longtime stronghold, the car, you have the #1 most requested app being Bluetooth, so Gen Z and Gen Alpha can use their mobile phones to listen to music and podcasts.
Radio desperately needs to transition into digital vs. the ever-shrinking terrestrial signals being consumed on radio receivers. Yes, we have several great streaming apps, but consumers are still confused about radio’s availability on their mobile phone. But radio isn’t following marketing basics with a music and talk delivery platform, which is seeing the migration of audience — especially 12-34 year olds — to streaming services and apps for music and talk. We need one universal killer app for ALL radio stations to use, and for radio to be able to reinvent itself and to market this digital option to everyone.
Besides music issues, you have the same challenges and biggest deterrents to listening facing radio.
Radio needs to address streaming platforms’ #1 advantage over radio and the #1 reason for a paid subscription, which “is to avoid ads interrupting the music.” But that can’t happen with the major owners who can’t reduce spot loads because they paid 10x what stations were worth after the Telecom Bill passed in 1996. That means that the monthly station payment takes a big chunk out of a radio station’s budget. Plus, you will have always have high quarterly revenue results expectations of publicly held radio companies.
Radio needs to address streaming platforms’ #1 advantage over radio and the #1 reason for
a paid subscription, which “is to avoid ads interrupting the music.” But that can’t happen with
the major owners who can’t reduce spot loads because they paid 10x what stations were
worth after the Telecom Bill passed in 1996. That means that the monthly station payment
takes a big chunk out of a radio station’s budget. Plus, you will have always have high
quarterly revenue results expectations of publicly held radio companies.
The legendary Jon Coleman from Coleman Insights posted his thoughts about what it will take to bring back a younger audience to radio. He believes doing “live and local,” and even creating content that’s relevant to that younger audience won’t be enough …
It has got to be game changing, and it has got to be fun for the listeners!
As longtime radio vet John Davis reminded me of while he was an Arizona State student, KZZP’s Bruce Kelly wanted the morning show to do a remote while tubing down the Salt River, which was out of range of our studio even with a Marti unit. Why did we want to do the remote? Because that’s what everyone did in the summer in Phoenix to cool off, and we wanted to have fun with our listeners.
So, we had our engineering team set up the Marti unit at the remote, our engineer Dwayne flew a plane overhead, and the signal was beamed back to the studio. Crazy impossible, but fun and, as Jon Coleman said, it was a “game changing” stunt. Having fun and allowing the listeners to have fun is another aspect of the great radio of the past that we need more of today.
l’ll have another Music Cycle update toward the end of 2023.
Usually, the hallmarks of The Doldrums are that you see more AC, usually less Pop, more Country and often a little more Rock than average. This had happened in each Doldrums phase for 40 years. But this changed beginning with The Doldrums of 2004, with Top 40 radio concerned about a 90s Doldrums that saw the loss of over 500 stations.
Knowing this downturn for the format was partly due to an avoidance of Pop music, Top 40 began to
over-focus on it and asked labels to produce more of it. So, Top 40 radio tried to force a new reality
on the percentage of music it played over the next two decades where it spun Pop music so much
that it was as much as 2/3 of the most spun songs of the year. Doing that created a pattern of forcing
Pop music in tough times when it was harder to find Pop hits. That meant that HipHop and R&B, AC,
Alternative and Country hits, which made the Billboard’s Year End Top 100 from other formats, were
being avoided by Top 40, a practice that damaged its hit factor, variety, and its expectation of genre
variety by listeners and over time, diminishing the number of fans to the format.
I will show the numbers below after a quick refresher course on the Music Cycle and the signs that show we’re in The Doldrums.
Doldrums is the last of 3 phases of the 10-year music cycle, and in any given 10-year music cycle, The Doldrums is worst phase for music and music’s gatekeeper – Top 40 radio.
The Music Cycle is composed of three phases that have repeated every 10 years since 1956, where
the balance of core styles differs from phase to phase.
— Plenty of Pop hits, plus Rock and HipHop/R&B are more Pop, more melodic.
— Moves toward the edges, away from Pop, and Top 40’s ratings begin to dip.
— Mainstream Top 40’s R&B and Rock edges soften and much of Rock and R&B music hits are being avoided from play, entirely. Mainstream Top 40 ratings dip even more.
What brings back The Rebirth Phase, which is when a new Cycle happens, when a genre or an artist or a music platform brings about another change in music.
Music Cycle #1 1956 Artists: Elvis
Music Cycle #2 1964 Artists: The Beatles
Music Cycle #3 1974 The Albums: Led Zeppelin, Rolling Stones, Fleetwood Mac, Stevie Wonder
Music Cycle #4 1984 Platform + Artists – MTV and its generation of artists
Music Cycle #5 1997 Platform: The Internet and Napster allowing for free music and trading files
Music Cycle #6 2005 Platform: American Idol
Music Cycle #7 2015 Platform: Technology: Mobile Phone and Streaming Music
So, what are the factors that cause the shift in music phases during the music cycle? One factor is the differences in generations. Each generation wants something they can call their own as they mature – little sister never wants the same music that big sister or (heaven forbid) Mom/Dad are into. Music is driven by the leading-edge listeners who adopt what is hot today; and what’s hot today is yesterday’s news in a few years. So, the Cycle repeats as each generation demands its own style of music (even if it’s still a form of Rock, Pop or R&B or Country). What else causes music to move through these phases? People argue that the dominant music platform i.e., the gatekeeper radio (and now) streaming platforms have a choice and can control the Music Cycle, so that the overall music balance you hear does not need to go through the Extremes or the Doldrums and can always stay balanced as it does during the Birth/Rebirth phase. These Music Cycle cynics believe that the music cycle itself is not real and under human control … but it’s really not! Yes, they can cause the intensity of the Extremes or the Doldrums to be more pronounced or less so but they can’t control the ebb and flow of the popular genres and songs that listeners love. The changes from one phase to the next and finally to the rebirth of a brand new Music Cycle are simply based on human nature.
Top 40 is stuck in a rut and NOT reflecting the most popular songs as Year End charts for Top 40 Airplay Vs Year end charts for the popularity have about 50% duplication, meaning Top 40 is playing 50% of the most popular hits. There are lots of hits from other genres that could be played, but Top 40 remains too focused on pure Pop and Dance with some Hip/Hop R&B and some Rock, Country, and AC when so much more of Country and AC/Hot AC as well as a little more Rock could be played, as they are reflected in larger proportions on the Billboard Year End Charts.
2022 marks the biggest departure of Top 40 airplay from the popularity charts (Billboard). We see a drop we’ve not seen in over a decade, from the Pop + Hip Hop’s dominance and the largest proportion of non-Pop music. since the 80s. It also marks the biggest percentage of Country hits of all times with 26% a number and a 21% average so far in the 2020s.
So why is it the worst Doldrums cycle ever for Top 40 radio because over the last few years we’ve seen Top 40 radio’s average ranking in the ratings reached its lowest point ever.
During the early 2010s it was averaging 2nd 6+ in Nielson. By 2020 it was tied for 4th 2021 5th and in 2022 its 7th, In many markets it’s barely Top 7 looking at 6+, with many stations out of the top 10 completely with Classic Rock, Classic Hits and AC formats dominating.
This same weak trend for Top 40 has occurred for all 3 years of The Doldrums.
While the good news is Top 40 radio’s average has held its 18-34P and 25-54P rank position, its share has dropped dramatically since 2016 when the decline began. In 18-34P Top 40 is #1 tied with AC, but minus 50% and 25-54P #3 and minus 30%.
Much of the Top 40 ratings decline is caused by an exodus of the under 30 audience and to a lesser
extent 30-50P to Streaming platforms, TikTok and Satellite but also to more Gold-based formats.
Yes, we know more people cume radio than any other platforms but in total time spent consuming audio radio itself is struggling mightily especially with Gen Z and Gen Alpha.
Also, America is getting older with the median age now at 38 not 28 like it was in the 70s, but the
radio listener average age in Jacob Media’s Latest Tech Survey 2022 is even older at 55.8. So,
we’re seeing not only the worst Doldrums for Top 40 radio, but for radio itself.
Yes, radio itself also faces a steep decline in time spent listening – with the massive increase in use of streaming platforms and apps on the mobile phone become the number #1 way to consume audio and its future. But radio suffered through the “Death Of 1000 Cuts” to get here (and no it’s not too late for radio!). Some of this was due to the massive debt load radio overpaid for radio stations, which created a lack of continued investment like we had done prior to Consolidation after the Telecom Bill in 1987. We just haven’t done enough in protect our medium.
Here are just a few of the 1000 Cuts:
Radio’s Focus On A Ratings Service, Not The Listener
Radio essentially has become more and more of a background medium not a foreground music medium after Arbitron’s Soft Diary in 1986 which created a focus on workplace and being a utility. Listeners were asked to write down what they “hear” passively in the background and not “listen” to a radio station passionately. To make matters worse, Arbitron added the workplace as a listening location for the first time, which meant that background music stations like Adult Contemporary got 10 times the credit at the workplace as what had been a normal long listening diary to a foreground music station.
In the Summer of ‘86 after the Soft Diary took effect background AC stations that were used at the workplace shot to the top of the ratings all over America, and music formats like Top 40 and Rock dropped to #5 or #6.
So, Arbitron changed the radio landscape by exaggerating the value of passive listening and formats like Top 40, the newly created Hot AC format and others began to focus on a strategy of getting workplace credit to succeed in Arbitron’s new methodology. Radio would never the same again after stations began to be focused on being the best background utility they could be, and as it entered the 2000s, we tried to remove irritants to workplace listening like energetic personalities and intense production.
Arbitron methodology no longer represented the value of a large contingent of listeners accurately and that strategy worked in reverse as it offered a radio offramp to Napster and Spotify for those passionate music fans who no longer were getting as much fun and energy as they wanted from music formats in radio.
Radio’s Mobile Strategy?!?
After Steve Jobs refused to include radio tuner on the iPhone in the early 00s, we did not push hard enough to get an antennae chip so mobile phones could pick up radio terrestrial analog signals on the Android phone. Even recently in order to receive Emergency alerts the FCC asked Apple to install FM Chips, but they refused. Android has an FM tuner but its hidden and has to be unlocked. Luckily, streaming platforms for radio were created by iHeartradio along with Tune-In, but radio didn’t focus nearly enough on promoting its presence there and the benefits of listening through the app. So, the result as you can see from the Larry Rosen/Edison Research graph, only 12% of listening to radio occurs via streaming and that is a disaster! Fewer and fewer people actually own radios, and Apps and Bluetooth enabling streaming platforms are invading Radio’s safe place – car listening With the majority of listeners consuming radio on mobile phones, radio as a medium has got to make an all-out effort to advertise the value of our medium on other platforms and convert existing audience to listening to streaming if we’re to survive in the future.
Larry Rosen of Edison Research “Share Of Ear Report” shows the following:
Commercial Load: It is very hard to compete with a streaming platform or app where you have little, or no commercials and you have at times 18-20 commercial an hour. That over-commercialization is a lasting brand impression of radio that will be hard to erase.
Personalities, The Next Generation (Radio’s Last Best Hope): Most of the great personalities of today have been on the radio for 20-30 years, and great ones like Scott Shannon have retired while others like Howard Stern moved on to SiriusXM satellite radio. Sadly, we have not invested enough in finding and developing successors to these great shows, personalities that can communicate with the future listeners of our medium: Gen Z and Gen Alpha. We so desperately need these personalities, and we need them in every daypart. We need them live AND local so they can be in constant contact with a new audience that has an ever-shrinking attention span.
Radio and the Top 40 format have lost the long time #1 position as the gatekeeper of the music discovery where the hits start, also radio has lost the large amount of listening from passionate music fans looking for music discovery. Now that’s #1 position belongs to Streaming platforms and apps.
The factor that has built hits in the past, a consensus of agreement on the most popular songs due to exposure by radio (and especially Top 40 radio). Radio has lost its gatekeeper crown and there are multiple streaming platforms (and their playlists ) and TikTok as well as radio to hear the songs. The challenge is that the star making platforms that expose music are no longer at ONE CONSENSUS destination. For 55 years Top 40 radio as a whole picked up on 90% of the same hit music – when a song reached CRITICAL MASS with a huge number of listeners after it was high on the Billboard Charts and in POWER ROTATION at the same time across the country by these Top 40 stations it became a massive hit almost automatically. Those days are gone.
So, it’s so incredibly hard to build consensus because the share of ears is spread across so many platforms streaming, apps, satellite, and of course, radio. And because with all these media platforms it’s hard to build consensus around one song and even building hits and hit artists, and that journey to the top can take a long time.
Some of this effect and loss of control of the starting the hits is reflected where we see less
and less super hit titles – what I call consensus A’s, which are a majority of top 40 stations
play as powers. Those numbers have shrunk every year, dropping dramatically from the
number we have 5-10 years ago where this is the lowest amount of these major hits in
history.
Year
2020
2021
2022
That also means the biggest hits are staying on longer, slowing all the other songs in rotation. When a song or album becomes a hit, they stay on the Billboard and Mediabase spin charts or Streaming charts even longer leaving much less room for new music and new artists.
There are a number of different ways hit songs start today
1. A hit today can come from massive streams that a superstar artist dropping a song receives because it’s immediately embraced by streaming services. The top places for music discovery today happen to be on Spotify, Today’s Top Hits, Rap Caviar, Viva Latino PLUS a place on Spotify’s New Music Friday playlist is hugely influential in a song become a streaming hit.
2. A song that starts at TikTok and is embraced by Streaming services like Gayle’s “abcdefu” or Em Behold’s “Numb Little Bug”.
3. Top 40 Radio can no longer break a song alone unless it becomes a massive hit is put in power rotation by most of the Top 40 panel and THEN gets picked back up by Streaming services…case in point was “Levitating” by Dua Lipa, which came back in June last year to become the biggest song of the year 3 months after it was moved to recurrent by the Top 40 charts and dropped dramatically in streaming.
4. If a song is extremely lucky and is included in a super-popular streaming series like Netflix’s ‘Stranger Things,’ ‘Ozark,’ Disney’s ‘Encanto’ or HBO’s ‘Euphoria’ and gets massive exposure that can have a profound impact in stimulating audio streaming.
5. “Running Up That Hill” got that massive exposure and was central to the series for entire season on ‘Stranger Things,’ so it exploded in Streaming audio. “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” by the Encanto Cast was at 30 million streams a week hit for two months until radio touched it when it was already practically burned out.
Bottom line, there are so many places for listeners to go to listen and discover music, so it is very hard to break a current hit song. Unless there is a dominant platform that a majority of consumers go to discover music there will be less of a chance for a consensus of agreement on hits and we might not see a Rebirth phase and more hit music again for a while.
The Streaming Platforms are losing their power over the hits as well. Streaming service like Spotify and Apple are experiencing a loss of streams and TikTok is widely projected to be their successor to Streaming platforms in driving music popularity is losing its influence in driving streams. Labels are saying that TikTok is the most powerful marketing tool in music today.
We are seeing the songs at the top of Spotify’s playlist Today’s Top Hits stream a lot less than in previous years and some of that is due to the popularity of TikTok. Gen Z and Gen Alpha want something that the major streaming services do not offer. They want to take a more active role in the creative process of music making their own videos and content and not just be passive. But TikTok does not always help an artist develop a relationship with the audience as its user focused and not artist focused. It does not use the artist’s videos and instead the artist’s music is being used as background music for the user’s video. So, listeners are connecting almost as much to that artist on TikTok than they would if they were watching the actual artist video. Another problem is that so many new songs have a lifespan of just a few weeks.
Also, we’re seeing a decline in the value of TikTok breaking hits as the top 10 TikTok tracks were streamed far less in 2022 than they were in 2020, fueling worries that app usage isn’t “translating” as well to consumption.
Top 10 Singles Per Year On TikTok In The U.S.
2020 4.9 billion
2022 1.9 billion
That is a drop of roughly three billion streams, or 61%, in two years.
So TikTok is not influencing the biggest hits as much as even a year ag .
Breaking a current hit today is so very hard when 80% of what is being consumed by music consumers are catalogue titles It’s all about the sheer number of ears/eyeballs that a given
song reaches through exposure in the following ways:
One of the biggest signs of The Doldrums is a resurgence in popularity of Gold music, remakes of older songs, and older songs themselves becoming currents again. Never in the history of Entertainment has there been more consumption of older music (as well as recycled movies and tv) especially from the 70s and 80s. We saw “Dreams” by Fleetwood Mac make a return to the streaming charts a TikTok user posted a video of himself skateboarding to work while drinking Ocean Spray and lip-synching to Fleetwood Mac’s “Dreams”.
Also, in the last 3 years some of the biggest music influences has come from video series like ‘Euphoria’ and ‘Stranger Things’ based in the 80s bringing back hits like Kate Bush’s “Running Up That Hill.”
But we should have seen this changing tide from new to old coming as it’s been happening over the past 2 decades. Gold titles were becoming more popular than current music in 2004 – in the U.S., catalog titles accounted for 35% of music sales that expanded in 2014 to 50% of the revenue for music. The last 3 years has seen streaming and sales catalog according to Luminate expand to 65% (2020) then 69.4% (2021) and finally 72.4% (2022). So, in 2022 we’ve seen Current music’s share fall by a full 3% to just 27.6%.
For decades movie studios focused on creating new movies and television and labels focused on finding and developing new artists, now movie studios are looking for sure things with older movie stars being the highest paid and in most of the blockbuster movies. Also, you have older people with money being the consumers who are buying most of the music, so labels are trying to find ways to leverage their gold catalogues of older artists for repackaging as well as for song syncs with major advertising or consumer brands.
Also, you have the effect of the major streaming platforms algorithm leaning toward the same old songs because they are more familiar (and more common to most people). But with the massive amount of music available for streaming on the major Streaming platforms by their very nature will have more older music than new and so older music gets exposed, more.
Recently music industry executives seeing that over 70% of what listeners buy or stream are catalog titles are becoming more risk adverse toward contemporary music and new artists. They believe it’s a fait accompli, a done deal before it’s finished … catalog titles will make up most of the revenue for labels and the it’s harder to justify that investment in new artists, as radio has seen in building the hits, it’s exponentially harder today for label’s marketing departments to develop new artists and hit songs because audiences are shared/split amongst SO many streaming platforms (Spotify, YouTube, etc.) as well as radio and of course that time is also shared with other forms of entertainment like gaming, streaming tv series and podcasting.
Also, some music labels are even saying they don’t want to pay huge amounts of money to established stars. Which gives a bleak outlook for future new artist development and long term hitmakers. Just wait until the advent of “Web 3,” and when it becomes mainstream further eroding the hold of the creative community powerbrokers and places creators themselves in total control of their content. Then the share of ears and eyeballs will be spread out even further making it even harder to attain consensus of popularity for any one song artist (or video) and we may see even less songs become hits.
So, what we are seeing now and possibly in the future makes it “the perfect storm” of challenges and this is worst Doldrums of all times for hit music.
1. We need to find the next great Personalities that can communicate with Gen Z and Gen Alpha.
2. We want those personalities to be Live AND Local and 24/7.
3. In a mobile phone world, and with listeners short attention spans shrinking all the time we need them to have constant and almost immediate communication with listeners thru social media (TikTok, Facebook Live) and texting. If they react with you and you don’t react with them almost immediately, they will get bored and move on.
4. We need to find a way to reduce the commercial load to 6 minutes and charging more for spots to make for the loss of revenue.
5. Once we fix our problems, we need to promote the advantages of our medium on platforms where Gen Z and Gen Alpha and Millennials spend the most time.
Luckily, we actually have an example to copy, almost all of the above is being done by station in Canada, consulted by Global Radio Consultant Ken Benson, 102-3 Now in Edmonton, Alberta which has 6 minutes of commercials an hour, great personalities in all dayparts, and constantly communicates with its listeners through texts.
1. “Play the F’ing Hits” and keep powering them! With Spotify TikTok as popular as they are and Shazam a frequently used method millions use to identify songs, you have 3 great tools to help you identify what new songs to play and even use to help build your developing categories. You also have Hitpredictor and Sales as well as further indications of the hits. But you can’t tell what songs are most popular with radio listeners without highly targeted callout for your audience to figure out what those songs are. These are the most important songs on your radio station – those songs are your building blocks, your spokes in building your music hours. There are only a handful of songs at any one time that are LOVED by your core and cume. Also people are listening less to radio so you can actually play songs even more weeks than we currently do as long as they still research well. This year with only 23 consensus hits you cannot wait months to add a hit song that is a massively streaming #1 song like Encanto’s “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” which radio waited 2 months too long to play when it was 30 million streams for weeks and it wound up being burned out by the time it was played and radio lost a precious hit song to power.
2. Play All the Hits (even the slow ones) When the People Meter first launched lead programmers in the Top 40 format developed a belief that downtempo songs were tuneouts in PPM. Yes, playing slow songs back to back on a format where tempo is an expectation should be followed but avoiding downtempo when a large portion of the biggest hits of all time have been ballads is foolish. Out of 12 songs an hour, you could easily play 4 maybe 5 slow songs an hour and still be a largely uptempo music hour.
3. Play all the Hits (even songs that aren’t Pop) We saw 54% of the most popular songs not being played enough to make the Year End Top 100 of Top 40 radio. Radio should be exposing AC, Rock, Country and melodic Hip Hop if they stream well.
4. Listen – Use Your Ears Check out music from every streaming platform and app out there and
find your own hits: As a radio or satellite music programmer, don’t just depend on the labels or the
charts!!! Whether it’s a new TikTok song you love, an unreleased album cut, a hit overseas, or a
song from another format if it’s great and it sounds right on your station, and if it’s one of the best
songs available, don’t be afraid to play and spin it enough and then patiently check our own data to
verify that it’s a hit.
I know that programmers/Music Directors have 10 times the responsibility and a fraction of the time programmers like myself had to listen to music, but music is still, to quote Jon Coleman, ‘the base of our station image pyramid’ the main reason or one of the main reasons besides personalities that people listen to a music station …it was a #1 job in our time as programmers. When it comes to finding the next hit song and new artist that becomes core to your format, it may rest on your shoulders!
5. Give songs the time and exposure to be hits Give songs – especially the songs that show they are a hit in streaming enough exposure (6 weeks 6a-7p spins) to make sure they get a fair shake when you research them in callout.
Remember the average radio listener listens 15 to 30 minutes a day and that low level listening makes up 70 to 80% of the ratings. So, you need to give a song spins every few hours especially
during the day each week often for 8 weeks to make sure they are exposed enough to all your listeners and then be patient and not kneejerk to early callout.
Also, do not give up on a song in callout until its 85% familiar for multiple weeks in a row then you can judge whether a song is going to be a hit for you.When the People Meter first launched lead programmers.
I really worry about the effect of labels facing a changing and challenging world for music exposure and who are demoralized and hurting financially, if they don’t have song that are streaming but will test well at radio. They are considering a greatly diminished investment in new artists (and major artists). I know that may be a short-term recipe for financial success but it’s also a recipe for long term creative failure. It will have a disastrous effect for the music industry and the radio/satellite/streaming formats/channels that depend on new music and what was always a guarantee of “fresh new songs and artists.”
The solution for labels is not new in fact it’s “old school” and in many ways it’s just to maintain the
discipline they’ve used for years.
Just like any new product that a company creates whether it’s a new breakfast cereal, a radio station or a music artist, they require:
A. substantial investment
B. time and patience
C. product expertise (producers to help mold and develop the artist)
D. marketing to create and build an image and find ways to connect with potential fans
E. management expertise (touring merchandizing etc.).
So far there have been seven other Doldrums beginning with the first one in 1960 and we’re in the 8th Doldrums now. The Doldrums usually lasts 3 years, sometimes less and sometimes more like the worst Doldrums up until now which was The Doldrums of 1991 through 1994. But oh yes, we’re living in the worst Doldrums in history for radio and especially Top 40 radio. If The Doldrums lasted through 2023 that would tie for the longest period for The Doldrums ever. But with what’s going on with new songs and artists depending on the huge spread for listening through streaming platforms, apps, satellite and radio it’s not hard to imagine a period where Top 40 radio struggles for longer than the longest Doldrums of the early 90s.
Brilliant Matt Bailey Integr8 Research’s projects: A generational influence on “the next wholesale mainstream new music evolution when today’s high school seniors turn 21 in 2026 — give or take a year or two.”
I certainly hope that we see at least a Rebirth in the Music Cycle by then because that would make it
6 years. However, with share of listening splintered among multiple music platforms and we see
“User Focused” creative world approaching with Web 3 technology there is now a greatly reduced
chance for consensus of popularity for music and artists and so it may be even longer before we see
Rebirth.
Country and top 40 radio have always had a tenuous relationship, but at a time when the former is producing bigger hits, the latter may be embracing the crossover.
BY ELIAS LEIGHT BILLBOARD MAGAZINE
Morgan Wallen’s “Last Night” climbed to No. 5 on Billboard’s latest Pop Airplay chart. Ryan Smith Kane Brown released “Heaven,” a love-drunk single that practically radiates romantic bliss, in the fall of 2017. The following May, the track topped Billboard’s Country Airplay chart and climbed to No. 15 on the Hot 100. Despite this success, “we never tried to cross it over” to pop radio, says Martha Earls, who manages Brown. “In what world would you have an almost Diamond-certified single that you didn’t try to take over to pop? It was a different time. Back then, that opportunity just was not there.”
Country Music Consumption Is Way Up in 2023 — and Morgan Wallen Is Leading the Charge
Today, Earls says, conditions are different — she “absolutely would” have promoted “Heaven” to the Top 40 format. “Let’s take it to pop [radio] tomorrow!” she jokes.
This summer, country singles are finally starting to fare better on the Billboard Pop Airplay chart: Morgan Wallen‘s “Last Night” is at No. 5 on the latest ranking, while Luke Combs‘ “Fast Car” hit No. 20. (They also sit at No. 1 and No. 2 on the Billboard Hot 100, respectively.) “Most Top 40 programmers are protective of pop music sounds,” says Steven Shannon, music director at KZFN in Moscow, Idaho. “It’s unusual to have two country songs out at the same time that are in the Top 20.”
With that in mind, “it’s nice to see more people being open to our format,” adds Chris Kappy, who manages Luke Combs. “I appreciate the fact that people can look at country music just like they look at any other genre.”
In the past, pop radio has flirted with country periodically but never really embraced the genre, suggesting that the success of Wallen and Combs could be another temporary blip. (Pop radio’s arms-length approach to country is part of the reason why, before this year, the last track to top both Country Airplay and the Hot 100 was Lonestar‘s “Amazed” in 2000.) “I guarantee that most Top 40 programmers are resistant” to adding country to their playlists, Shannon says. Sure enough, one pop PD tells Billboard, “I’d rather be playing hip-hop.”
As a result, country executives say they still only consider attempting a pop radio campaign in special cases. But shifts in the music landscape could point to a bigger role for country in the pop airplay mix moving forward. The genre’s audience is surging — country’s consumption has increased by a whopping 20.3% year-over-year in the first 26 weeks of 2023, according to Luminate, making its popularity tough to overlook. (By contrast, pop is up by 7.6%.)
Country singles get to shine on pop radio roughly once a decade, according to Guy Zapoleon, a veteran radio consultant. He is known in radio circles for his “10-year music cycle” theory, which divides pop airplay into three distinct periods: the birth phase, the extremes phase, and the doldrums phase. Terrestrial radio is currently very much in the doldrums — “the worst doldrums of all times,” Zapoleon declares — and during these periods, it’s customary for Top 40 programmers to cast around for hits elsewhere, roping in singles from country or the format known as “adult contemporary.”
In the past, Zapoleon says, this has led to increased airplay for country at Top 40 for periods lasting two to three years. In 1963, Johnny Cash, Skeeter Davis, and Bobby Bare were beneficiaries of this trend; in 1974, programmers embraced Glen Campbell, Charlie Rich, and Mac Davis; in the early 1980s, Dolly Parton, Kenny Rogers, and Eddie Rabbitt were added on to Top 40 playlists, boosted in part in the wake of the success of John Travolta’s 1980 film Urban Cowboy.
This context suggests that Wallen and Combs may be helping Top 40 through a rough patch, but that the dalliance won’t last. “If history is an indication, I think maybe this [playing more country at Top 40] might be just a trend,” says Matt Mony, program director for WYOY in Jackson, Mississippi. “It’s sort of like what we saw with all the sample-songs that we were playing” — think Bebe Rexha and David Guetta’s “I’m Good (Blue)” — “that’s starting to lighten up a bit.”
Country artists seeking Top 40 airplay don’t just have to win over pop programmers, they also have to worry about country programmers’ possessiveness. “In the past,
there was a sense that if an artist crossed over from country they were leaving the format,” Earls acknowledges. With Brown, “we almost created two careers,” she adds. “We would have a song go to Top 40” — including collaborations with Marshmello, blackbear, and Swae Lee — but also “make sure that we released music to super-serve the country fans too.”
Adrian Michaels, vp of innovation, radio, and streaming at BMG’s Stoney Creek Records, has been on an impressive streak with Jelly Roll, a 38-year-old who spent time in prison for dealing drugs, got out and built a budding rap career, and then turned into a country breakout. Jelly Roll is now starting to receive some pop airplay after enjoying success at both country and rock radio. “It definitely bruises some [programing] people when they see” artists move to other formats, Michaels says. “I get yelled at a lot. But the audience has a much bigger voice than a gatekeeper saying, ‘this belongs on this station only, because we’re the ones who broke them.’”
And that voice has gotten a lot louder lately. The runaway success of “Last Night” and “Fast Car” is taking place amidst an eruption of interest in the genre that Wallen and Combs call home. “We’re seeing a global moment for the genre right now, and that is opening up some space at other formats,” explains Stacy Blythe, svp of radio promotion at Wallen’s label, Big Loud.
Those other formats may not be able to continue to look past country if that growth continues. “What I hope happens is that [pop radio programmers] see the numbers coming in on streaming, and if this [country song] is streaming as much as this [pop single], obviously that shows there are people out there listening,” Kappy says. “It’s contemporary hits radio. They should be playing the contemporary hits of the day.”
In addition, terrestrial radio’s role in the music ecosystem has shifted dramatically in the last decade in ways that might make the pop airwaves more hospitable to country. One key difference is that many young listeners have abandoned radio for streaming services and TikTok; a recent survey from the consultancy Jacobs Media Strategy found that the average age of radio listeners is around 55 years old.
This bodes well for the cross-format popularity of country, which the radio industry historically views as a genre favored by more mature listeners. “Another reason country is working so well at Top 40 right now is because we’re dealing more with women 25-plus, and that’s a really good fit for that genre,” Mony says.
And “as the Top 40 format continues to age up, programmers should consider country crossovers,” adds Cat Collins, a radio consultant and former vp of Top 40 and Hot AC for Townsquare Media.
Some radio experts also believe that the pop format has strayed from its roots in the past decade-ish as a platform that elevates all the hits, regardless of their origin. “The theoretical ideal of Top 40 is to play hits from across the spectrum of music, a notion that has largely faded, as most Top 40s have been sticking to a very narrow lane,” says Larry Rosin, president of Edison Research. Recent country singles that did well on pop radio — like Dan + Shay‘s 2021 hit “10,000 Hours” and Gabby Barrett‘s 2020 smash “I Hope,” both of which cracked the top 10 — gained access in part by incorporating Top 40 mainstays (Justin Bieber and Charlie Puth, respectively).
Top 40 stations are going through a brutal period of low ratings; could the “narrow lane” approach be adding to the format’s troubles? For Zapoleon, it’s simply a matter of numbers: Country singles accounted for more than 20% of the year-end Hot 100 in 2022, but around 1% of the year-end Mediabase Top 40 chart. “That’s a lot of country hits Top 40 isn’t playing,” he says. “Hopefully they wake up.”
SiriusXM’s Hits 1 is one of five Top 40 stations already testing “Need a Favor,” a growling, lighters-up power ball from Jelly Roll that has spent multiple weeks atop the rock radio chart and is inside the top five at country radio. “We’re not waiting for campaigns to come in our direction,” says Alex Tear, vp of music programming for SiriusXM and Pandora. Too often, “radio is late to the game.” His peers may be more receptive to Jelly Roll this year than in years past. “I don’t want to jinx anything, but don’t be surprised if, by the time this comes out, you see [Jelly Roll] really popping up at Top 40,” Michaels says. “It’s a wonderful feeling for us to take somebody from Music Row here and have this much reach.”
